How Many Votes Does It Take to Control the Senate?

 

From the Federal Election Commission, LocalParty.Org obtained the outcome of the 3 senate elections of 2000, 2002, and 2004, that helped elect the 2005-2006 body of Senators. Calculating all numbers together for them, 120,231,266 of total votes were cast in these three elections. These are all the votes combined for the 100 winners. Since each state has two elections, and each voter has therefore two chances to vote for a senator, the number of voters per state needs to be divided by two to get the averaged voter result. This delivers a total of 60,115,633 winning voters, a number that is the averaged voter support for each set of 50 Senators. Overall, 34 states have two Senators of the same party, while 16 states have Senators from two parties, showing that in most states a clear voter preference exists for one of the two parties. Or put differently, in 34 states, the losing voters lost in either election.

29,111,622 votes

After the 2004 elections, the Republican Party ended up having the most Senators, yet this party only needed 29,111,622 votes to make that happen, a number that is 1,797,824 lower than the number of votes the Democratic Senators received. Despite the fact that the Democratic Senators were voted in office with more votes — the number being 30,909,445 votes — this party received fewer Senators than the Republican Party. This observed discrepancy is due to the fact that unequal geographical areas were established over the course of our history: California and Rhode Island each get two Senators, but are very different in size and number of people.

 

2005 - 2006 Senate
Winning
Votes
Actual
Voters

Eligible
Voters

Total
Population
People who voted Republican Senators in Office
48.43%
28.59%
17.12%
10.04%
People who voted Democratic Senators in Office
51.42%
30.35%
18.18%
10.66%
People who voted Independent Senator in Office
0.16%
0.09%
0.06%
0.03%
 
+
+
+
+
People whose winning vote elected a Senator
100%
59.03%
35.36%
20.73%
Voters (including those who did not receive representation)
100%
59.9 %
35.12%
Eligible voters (this includes people who did not vote)
100 %
58.62%
All people (this includes people not allowed to vote)
100%

 

Though the United States is seen around the world as an individualistic nation, we decide collectively per district who should lead us. More than forty percent of the votes become of no importance right after the races. The Republicans led the Senate with 29,111,622 averaged votes, which comes down to about 10% of the entire population. Naturally, people under the age of 18 and non-citizens cannot vote. Convicted felons (in jail, and sometimes after leaving jail) can also not vote in the United States. Therefore, when taking 170 million people as all eligible voters who were able to vote two Senators to Congress — a number purposefully chosen to be a low number to counter possible critique in advance — the Republican majority is then based on just a little over 17% of all potential voters (29,111,622 out of 170 million). Since the system is based on winner-takes-all very few votes actually decide who the winner is going to be; a strong emphasis is found both on the swing votes and on the swing states.

You may wonder if this low number is really correct because it seems to be extremely low. So let's work our way backwards this time: 60,115,633 voters got their Senator. Not everybody got the representative they voted for in this system, so we need to set this against the calculated average voter turnout of 101,836,575 people. That means that of all voters 59.03% of the voters actually got the Senator they wanted. By accident or not, the percentage of voter turnout compared to all eligible voters is almost identical: 59.9% of all eligible voters, 101,836,575 out of 170 million, came out to vote. Again, by accident or not, the percentage of the population of the United States entitled to vote is also almost identical: 58.62% of the entire population of 170 million out of 290 million is eligible to vote. So that is how only 10% of all people in the United States voted for the majority in the Senate.

Here is the specific information, and please note the low number of female Senators:


State Senators Votes Female Party Party
Alabama Jeff Sessions
792,561
R
 
  Richard C. Shelby
1,242,200
R
 
Alaska Theodore F. Stevens
179,438
R
 
  Lisa Murkowski
149,773
X
R
Arizona Jon Kyl
1,108,196
R
  John McCain
1,505,372
R
Arkansas Mark Pryor
433,306
 
D
  Blanche L. Lincoln
580,973
X
 
D
California Dianne Feinstein
5,932,522
X
 
D
  Barbara Boxer
6,955,728
X
 
D
Colorado Wayne Allard
717,893
R
  Ken Salazar
1,081,188
 
D
Connecticut Joseph I. Lieberman
828,902
 
D
  Christopher J. Dodd
945,347
 
D
Delaware Thomas R. Carper
181,566
 
D
  Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
135,253
 
D
Florida Clarence William Nelson
2,989,487
 
D
  Mel Martinez
3,672,864
R
Georgia Saxby Chambliss
1,071,352
R
  Johnny Isakson
1,864,202
R
Hawaii Daniel K. Akaka
251,215
 
D
  Daniel K. Inouye
313,629
 
D
Idaho Larry E. Craig
266,215
R
  Mike Crapo
499,796
R
Illinois Richard Durbin
2,103,766
 
D
  Barack Obama
3,597,456
 
D
Indiana Richard G. Lugar
1,427,944
R
  Evan Bayh
1,496,976
 
D
Iowa Thomas R. Harkin
554,278
 
D
  Charles E. Grassley
1,038,175
R
Kansas Pat Roberts
641,075
R
  Sam Brownback
780,863
R
Kentucky Mitch McConnell
731,679
R
  Jim Bunning
873,507
R
Louisiana Mary Landrieu
638,654
X
D
  David Vitter
943,014
R
Maine Olympia J. Snowe
437,689
X
R
  Susan Collins
295,041
X
R
Maryland Paul S. Sarbanes
1,230,013
 
D
  Barbara A. Mikulski
1,504,691
X
 
D
Massachusetts Edward M. Kennedy
1,889,494
 
D
  John F. Kerry
1,605,976
 
D
Michigan Deborah A. Stabenow
2,061,952
X
 
D
  Carl Levin
1,896,614
 
D
Minnesota Mark Dayton
1,181,553
 
D
  Norm Coleman
1,116,697
R
Mississippi Trent Lott
654,941
R
  Thad Cochran
533,269
R
Missouri James Talent
935,032
R
  Christopher S. Bond
1,518,089
R
Montana Conrad Burns
208,082
R
  Max Baucus
204,853
 
D
Nebraska Earl Benjamin Nelson
353,093
 
D
  Chuck Hagel
397,438
R
Nevada John E. Ensign
330,687
R
  Harry Reid
494,805
D
New Hampshire John Sununu
227,229
R
  Judd A. Gregg
434,847
R
New Jersey Jon Corzine
1,511,237
 
D
  Frank R. Lautenberg
1,138,193
 
D
New Mexico Jeff Bingaman
363,744
 
D
  Pete V. Domenici
314,301
R
New York Hillary Rodham Clinton
3,747,310
X
 
D
  Charles Schumer
4,769,824
 
D
North Carolina Elizabeth Dole
1,248,664
X
R
  Richard Burr
1,791,450
R
North Dakota Kent Conrad
176,470
 
D
  Byron L. Dorgan
212,143
 
D
Ohio Mike DeWine
2,666,736
R
  George Voinovich
3,464,651
R
Oklahoma James M. Inhofe
583,579
R
  Tom Coburn
763,433
R
Oregon Gordon Smith
712,287
R
  Ron Wyden
1,128,728
D
Pennsylvania Rick Santorum
2,481,962
R
  Arlen Specter
2,925,080
R
Rhode Island Lincoln D. Chafee
222,588
R
  Jack Reed
253,922
D
South Carolina Lindsey Graham
600,010
R
  James DeMint
857,167
R
South Dakota Tim Johnson
167,481
D
  John Thune
197,848
R
Tennessee William H. Frist
1,255,444
R
  Lamar Alexander
891,420
R
Texas Kay Bailey Hutchison
4,082,091
X
R
  John Cornyn
2,496,243
R
Utah Orrin G. Hatch
504,803
R
  Robert Bennett
626,640
R
Vermont James M. Jeffords
189,133
(Ind)
(Ind)
  Patrick J. Leahy
216,972
D
Virginia George F. Allen
1,420,460
R
  John W. Warner
1,229,894
R
Washington Maria Cantwell
1,199,437
X
 
D
  Patty Murray
1,549,708
X
 
D
West Virginia Robert C. Byrd
469,215
 
D
  John D. Rockefeller IV
275,281
 
D
Wisconsin Herbert H. Kohl
1,563,238
 
D
  Russ Feingold
1,632,697
 
D
Wyoming Craig L. Thomas
157,622
R
  Mike Enzi
133,710
R
 
           
Total 100 Senators
120,231,266
58,223,243
61,818,890
Averaged 50 Senators
60,115,633
29,111,622
30,909,445

Since the math may make you wonder what is going on, here are the same results, but told differently yet another time.

Calculating all numbers together for Senators, 120,231,266 votes were cast in the elections that support the 100 winners. Since each state has two elections, and each voter has therefore two chances to get the senator they want, we need to double the number of possible voters by two. When taking 170 million people as all eligible voters who can vote one Senator to Congress per single election (which accounts for 50 elected Senators) then the total number of eligible voters is twice the 170 million for 100 seats. The Republican majority is then still based on the same little over 17% of all potential voters (58,223,244 out of 340 million). One more note: the 189,133 votes for Independent Senator Jeffords are only part of the total count in the middle column for the 100 Senators, and part of the averaged count for 50 Senators.

The percentage of represented people from the batch of eligible voters, who voted and got who they wanted, is 35.36%. That is: 60,115,633 out of 170 million eligible voters (or 120,231,266 out of 340 million eligible voters), of whom fewer than half of them voted Republican, the leading party in 2005-2006.

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